Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
38.68205 16600 2.330 BUF Josh Allen 23.50255 8700 Stefon Diggs 15.179499 7900
33.59823 14600 2.301 LAR Jared Goff 19.69065 7400 Robert Woods 13.907583 7200
39.94580 17400 2.296 ARI Kyler Murray 24.60830 8800 DeAndre Hopkins 15.337500 8600
30.33695 13400 2.264 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.93895 7000 Robby Anderson 12.398005 6400
28.55150 12800 2.231 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 16.98950 6800 DeVante Parker 11.562000 6000
34.33659 15400 2.230 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.65770 8300 Will Fuller 12.678891 7100
34.85371 15800 2.206 LAC Justin Herbert 20.22060 8000 Keenan Allen 14.633105 7800
28.31925 12900 2.195 DEN Drew Lock 17.22975 7100 Jerry Jeudy 11.089500 5800
29.44309 13500 2.181 WAS Alex Smith 15.50300 6500 Terry McLaurin 13.940085 7000
37.47783 17200 2.179 SEA Russell Wilson 22.84890 8900 DK Metcalf 14.628930 8300
28.22800 13000 2.171 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.11900 7000 Jarvis Landry 11.109000 6000
29.21485 13500 2.164 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.94010 7400 Chase Claypool 10.274750 6100
38.72523 17900 2.163 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.92090 8400 Davante Adams 17.804331 9500
29.63544 13900 2.132 LV Derek Carr 17.79390 6900 Darren Waller 11.841543 7000
29.12635 2.095 CIN Joe Burrow 16.68085 7200 Tyler Boyd 12.445500 6700
26.38640 12600 2.094 NYG Daniel Jones 15.66490 6700 Darius Slayton 10.721500 5900
33.07631 16100 2.054 NO Drew Brees 18.98515 7600 Michael Thomas 14.091158 8500
29.00445 14300 2.028 PHI Carson Wentz 17.94445 7500 Travis Fulgham 11.060000 6800
25.76230 13100 1.967 SF Nick Mullens 14.55430 6600 Brandon Aiyuk 11.208000 6500
26.53264 13500 1.965 DET Matthew Stafford 17.48080 7300 T.J. Hockenson 9.051837 6200
29.79920 15300 1.948 TB Tom Brady 18.89770 7800 Chris Godwin 10.901500 7500
21.54825 11800 1.826 JAX Jake Luton 14.18800 6700 Keelan Cole 7.360250 5100

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
71.29960 30700 2.322 BUF Josh Allen 23.50255 8700 Stefon Diggs 15.179499 7900
Cole Beasley 9.115000 5400
75.31135 32500 2.317 ARI Kyler Murray 24.60830 8800 DeAndre Hopkins 15.337500 8600
Christian Kirk 10.757250 6300
59.05665 26100 2.263 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.93895 7000 Robby Anderson 12.398005 6400
Curtis Samuel 10.780750 5700
67.74679 30000 2.258 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.65770 8300 Will Fuller 12.678891 7100
Brandin Cooks 11.752500 6300
66.54988 29700 2.241 LAR Jared Goff 19.69065 7400 Robert Woods 13.907583 7200
Cooper Kupp 13.261001 7700
73.99565 33500 2.209 SEA Russell Wilson 22.84890 8900 DK Metcalf 14.628930 8300
Tyler Lockett 13.668919 7400
65.24631 29700 2.197 LAC Justin Herbert 20.22060 8000 Keenan Allen 14.633105 7800
Mike Williams 10.172000 5900
58.25395 27300 2.134 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.94010 7400 Chase Claypool 10.274750 6100
JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.099000 6400
55.14284 25900 2.129 LV Derek Carr 17.79390 6900 Darren Waller 11.841543 7000
Nelson Agholor 7.713500 5100
53.41033 25100 2.128 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.11900 7000 Jarvis Landry 11.109000 6000
Austin Hooper 8.063325 5100
52.64249 24900 2.114 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 16.98950 6800 DeVante Parker 11.562000 6000
Mike Gesicki 7.101492 5300
54.12673 25700 2.106 DEN Drew Lock 17.22975 7100 Jerry Jeudy 11.089500 5800
Noah Fant 8.577733 5700
66.75413 31800 2.099 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.92090 8400 Davante Adams 17.804331 9500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.108000 5500
56.81770 27200 2.089 CIN Joe Burrow 16.68085 7200 Tyler Boyd 12.445500 6700
Tee Higgins 11.010500 6100
51.36759 24900 2.063 WAS Alex Smith 15.50300 6500 Terry McLaurin 13.940085 7000
Logan Thomas 6.421500 4900
60.81471 29500 2.062 NO Drew Brees 18.98515 7600 Michael Thomas 14.091158 8500
Emmanuel Sanders 8.753250 5800
50.89899 24900 2.044 NYG Daniel Jones 15.66490 6700 Darius Slayton 10.721500 5900
Evan Engram 8.847687 5600
52.26969 26000 2.010 DET Matthew Stafford 17.48080 7300 T.J. Hockenson 9.051837 6200
Danny Amendola 8.256250 5200
55.25089 27600 2.002 PHI Carson Wentz 17.94445 7500 Travis Fulgham 11.060000 6800
Dallas Goedert 8.301987 5800
59.53040 30400 1.958 TB Tom Brady 18.89770 7800 Chris Godwin 10.901500 7500
Mike Evans 10.833500 7300
47.69835 25100 1.900 SF Nick Mullens 14.55430 6600 Brandon Aiyuk 11.208000 6500
Kendrick Bourne 7.381750 5400
42.28650 23300 1.815 JAX Jake Luton 14.18800 6700 Keelan Cole 7.360250 5100
Chris Conley 6.550250 4800

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
103.37215 45000 2.297 BUF Josh Allen 23.50255 8700 Stefon Diggs 15.179499 7900
Cole Beasley 9.115000 5400
John Brown 8.570000 5600
106.23115 46300 2.294 ARI Kyler Murray 24.60830 8800 DeAndre Hopkins 15.337500 8600
Christian Kirk 10.757250 6300
Larry Fitzgerald 6.311500 5000
97.35424 43400 2.243 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.65770 8300 Will Fuller 12.678891 7100
Brandin Cooks 11.752500 6300
Randall Cobb 7.949750 5100
93.60303 42100 2.223 LAR Jared Goff 19.69065 7400 Robert Woods 13.907583 7200
Cooper Kupp 13.261001 7700
Josh Reynolds 7.362500 5000
87.25605 40400 2.160 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.94010 Chase Claypool 10.274750 6100
JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.099000 6400
Diontae Johnson 10.062000 5700
93.28167 43200 2.159 LAC Justin Herbert 20.22060 8000 Keenan Allen 14.633105 7800
Mike Williams 10.172000 5900
Hunter Henry 7.814769 5500
80.45560 37500 2.145 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.93895 7000 Robby Anderson 12.398005 6400
Curtis Samuel 10.780750 5700
Ian Thomas 3.460000 4400
101.92505 47700 2.137 SEA Russell Wilson 22.84890 8900 DK Metcalf 14.628930 8300
Tyler Lockett 13.668919 7400
David Moore 5.080500 5300
80.49349 37700 2.135 LV Derek Carr 17.79390 6900 Darren Waller 11.841543 7000
Nelson Agholor 7.713500 5100
Hunter Renfrow 7.556750 4900
76.05849 36300 2.095 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 16.98950 6800 DeVante Parker 11.562000 6000
Mike Gesicki 7.101492 5300
Jakeem Grant 6.426500 4600
79.90148 38300 2.086 DEN Drew Lock 17.22975 7100 Jerry Jeudy 11.089500 5800
Noah Fant 8.577733 5700
Tim Patrick 8.545000 5500
77.44533 37600 2.060 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.11900 7000 Jarvis Landry 11.109000 6000
Austin Hooper 8.063325 5100
Rashard Higgins 6.916000 5500
94.28053 45900 2.054 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.92090 8400 Davante Adams 17.804331 9500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.108000 5500
Robert Tonyan 6.605500 5700
81.65580 40000 2.041 CIN Joe Burrow 16.68085 7200 Tyler Boyd 12.445500 6700
Tee Higgins 11.010500 6100
A.J. Green 8.157250 5600
87.45429 43100 2.029 NO Drew Brees 18.98515 7600 Michael Thomas 14.091158 8500
Emmanuel Sanders 8.753250 5800
Jared Cook 7.654432 6000
74.86239 37100 2.018 NYG Daniel Jones 15.66490 6700 Darius Slayton 10.721500 5900
Evan Engram 8.847687 5600
Sterling Shepard 8.298500 5500
80.48259 40700 1.977 PHI Carson Wentz 17.94445 7500 Travis Fulgham 11.060000 6800
Dallas Goedert 8.301987 5800
Jalen Reagor 7.287250 5600
88.14460 44700 1.972 TB Tom Brady 18.89770 7800 Chris Godwin 10.901500 7500
Mike Evans 10.833500 7300
Antonio Brown 9.716500 6500
74.61299 37900 1.969 DET Matthew Stafford 17.48080 7300 T.J. Hockenson 9.051837 6200
Danny Amendola 8.256250 5200
Marvin Hall 4.862500 4600
69.78059 36300 1.922 WAS Alex Smith 15.50300 6500 Terry McLaurin 13.940085 7000
Logan Thomas 6.421500 4900
Cam Sims 2.910000 4900
69.40027 36700 1.891 SF Nick Mullens 14.55430 6600 Brandon Aiyuk 11.208000 6500
Kendrick Bourne 7.381750 5400
Jordan Reed 7.147616 5000
61.10075 34600 1.766 JAX Jake Luton 14.18800 6700 Keelan Cole 7.360250 5100
Chris Conley 6.550250 4800
Tyler Eifert 4.626250 4600

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
31.08650 10600 2.933 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.18950 5600 DeVante Parker 13.89700 5000
33.01874 11300 2.922 LV Derek Carr 18.14390 5400 Darren Waller 14.87484 5900
28.95640 10000 2.896 NYG Daniel Jones 16.16490 5200 Darius Slayton 12.79150 4800
42.38155 15000 2.825 BUF Josh Allen 23.75255 7500 Stefon Diggs 18.62900 7500
38.68581 13700 2.824 LAC Justin Herbert 20.42060 6600 Keenan Allen 18.26521 7100
36.67682 13100 2.800 LAR Jared Goff 19.86565 6500 Robert Woods 16.81117 6600
43.75830 15700 2.787 ARI Kyler Murray 24.78330 8000 DeAndre Hopkins 18.97500 7700
30.71300 11100 2.767 DEN Drew Lock 17.35475 5500 Jerry Jeudy 13.35825 5600
33.36346 12200 2.735 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 18.03895 6100 Robby Anderson 15.32451 6100
36.92673 13600 2.715 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.79270 6900 Will Fuller 15.13403 6700
32.41217 12000 2.701 WAS Alex Smith 15.55300 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.85917 6800
32.57135 12100 2.692 CIN Joe Burrow 17.03085 5700 Tyler Boyd 15.54050 6400
23.54325 8800 2.675 JAX Jake Luton 14.53800 5400 Keelan Cole 9.00525 3400
36.62672 13800 2.654 NO Drew Brees 19.13515 6400 Michael Thomas 17.49157 7400
28.90697 10900 2.652 DET Matthew Stafford 17.65580 5800 T.J. Hockenson 11.25117 5100
40.53926 15300 2.650 SEA Russell Wilson 23.02390 7700 DK Metcalf 17.51536 7600
31.55860 12000 2.630 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 19.04010 6200 Chase Claypool 12.51850 5800
32.23420 12300 2.621 TB Tom Brady 18.99770 6300 Chris Godwin 13.23650 6000
32.07945 2.608 PHI Carson Wentz 18.34445 5900 Travis Fulgham 13.73500 6400
30.65425 11900 2.576 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.18900 6000 Jarvis Landry 13.46525 5900
28.31980 11000 2.575 SF Nick Mullens 14.85430 5300 Brandon Aiyuk 13.46550 5700
42.84756 16900 2.535 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.09590 7900 Davante Adams 21.75166 9000

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
60.42689 20900 2.891 LV Derek Carr 18.14390 5400 Darren Waller 14.874835 5900
Hunter Renfrow 9.264250 4200
56.16899 19700 2.851 NYG Daniel Jones 16.16490 5200 Darius Slayton 12.791500 4800
Evan Engram 11.047688 4500
77.52035 27200 2.850 BUF Josh Allen 23.75255 7500 Stefon Diggs 18.628997 7500
Cole Beasley 11.386250 4700
72.97193 26100 2.796 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.79270 6900 Will Fuller 15.134032 6700
Brandin Cooks 14.252500 5600
57.10148 20500 2.785 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.18950 5600 DeVante Parker 13.897000 5000
Mike Gesicki 8.825484 4300
64.43691 23200 2.777 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 18.03895 6100 Robby Anderson 15.324509 6100
Curtis Samuel 13.034500 4900
81.54885 29400 2.774 ARI Kyler Murray 24.78330 8000 DeAndre Hopkins 18.975000 7700
Christian Kirk 13.007250 5700
71.05091 25700 2.765 LAC Justin Herbert 20.42060 6600 Keenan Allen 18.265211 7100
Mike Williams 11.944500 5400
56.74652 20600 2.755 DET Matthew Stafford 17.65580 5800 T.J. Hockenson 11.251174 5100
Danny Amendola 10.183750 3900
72.81197 26500 2.748 LAR Jared Goff 19.86565 6500 Robert Woods 16.811167 6600
Cooper Kupp 16.269503 6900
55.99417 20500 2.731 WAS Alex Smith 15.55300 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.859170 6800
Logan Thomas 8.029000 3300
58.67822 21500 2.729 DEN Drew Lock 17.35475 5500 Jerry Jeudy 13.358250 5600
Noah Fant 10.610466 4900
60.86537 22400 2.717 PHI Carson Wentz 18.34445 5900 Travis Fulgham 13.735000 6400
Dallas Goedert 10.441474 4200
80.07975 29500 2.715 SEA Russell Wilson 23.02390 7700 DK Metcalf 17.515360 7600
Tyler Lockett 16.516587 6500
63.00770 23300 2.704 CIN Joe Burrow 17.03085 5700 Tyler Boyd 15.540500 6400
Tee Higgins 13.405500 5500
63.08820 23400 2.696 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 19.04010 6200 Chase Claypool 12.518500 5800
Diontae Johnson 12.489500 5200
46.14025 17200 2.683 JAX Jake Luton 14.53800 5400 Keelan Cole 9.005250 3400
Chris Conley 8.059000 3000
58.01040 21800 2.661 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.18900 6000 Jarvis Landry 13.465250 5900
Austin Hooper 10.167151 3900
66.48637 25000 2.659 NO Drew Brees 19.13515 6400 Michael Thomas 17.491566 7400
Emmanuel Sanders 10.724500 4800
64.12915 24900 2.575 TB Tom Brady 18.99770 6300 Chris Godwin 13.236500 6000
Mike Evans 12.897250 6300
52.10585 20700 2.517 SF Nick Mullens 14.85430 5300 Brandon Aiyuk 13.465500 5700
Kendrick Bourne 8.931750 4400
72.55396 29200 2.485 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.09590 7900 Davante Adams 21.751662 9000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 8.610500 4400

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
104.63188 37000 2.828 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.79270 6900 Will Fuller 15.134032 6700
Brandin Cooks 14.252500 5600
Randall Cobb 9.867250 4000
82.29748 29100 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.18950 5600 DeVante Parker 13.897000 5000
Mike Gesicki 8.825484 4300
Jakeem Grant 8.006500 3000
87.78929 31200 2.814 LV Derek Carr 18.14390 5400 Darren Waller 14.874835 5900
Hunter Renfrow 9.264250 4200
Nelson Agholor 9.218500 4900
111.69540 40000 2.792 BUF Josh Allen 23.75255 7500 Stefon Diggs 18.628997 7500
Cole Beasley 11.386250 4700
John Brown 10.422500 5300
101.63012 36500 2.784 LAR Jared Goff 19.86565 6500 Robert Woods 16.811167 6600
Cooper Kupp 16.269503 6900
Josh Reynolds 8.952500 3500
101.26855 36400 2.782 LAC Justin Herbert 20.42060 6600 Keenan Allen 18.265211 7100
Mike Williams 11.944500 5400
Hunter Henry 9.797038 4100
82.92489 29900 2.773 NYG Daniel Jones 16.16490 5200 Darius Slayton 12.791500 4800
Evan Engram 11.047688 4500
Sterling Shepard 10.591000 5000
114.48615 41300 2.772 ARI Kyler Murray 24.78330 8000 DeAndre Hopkins 18.975000 7700
Christian Kirk 13.007250 5700
Larry Fitzgerald 8.154000 3900
86.89336 31900 2.724 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 18.03895 6100 Robby Anderson 15.324509 6100
Curtis Samuel 13.034500 4900
Ian Thomas 4.417500 2600
88.09207 32500 2.711 PHI Carson Wentz 18.34445 5900 Travis Fulgham 13.735000 6400
Dallas Goedert 10.441474 4200
Jalen Reagor 8.882250 4200
86.45297 31900 2.710 DEN Drew Lock 17.35475 5500 Jerry Jeudy 13.358250 5600
Noah Fant 10.610466 4900
Tim Patrick 10.420000 4900
90.25830 33400 2.702 CIN Joe Burrow 17.03085 5700 Tyler Boyd 15.540500 6400
Tee Higgins 13.405500 5500
A.J. Green 10.219750 4400
109.21915 40600 2.690 SEA Russell Wilson 23.02390 7700 DK Metcalf 17.515360 7600
Tyler Lockett 16.516587 6500
David Moore 6.115500 3400
80.10982 29900 2.679 DET Matthew Stafford 17.65580 5800 T.J. Hockenson 11.251174 5100
Danny Amendola 10.183750 3900
Marvin Hall 5.707500 3500
94.58230 35700 2.649 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 19.04010 6200 Chase Claypool 12.518500 5800
Diontae Johnson 12.489500 5200
JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.454000 6100
94.82288 36000 2.634 NO Drew Brees 19.13515 6400 Michael Thomas 17.491566 7400
Emmanuel Sanders 10.724500 4800
Jared Cook 9.201365 4600
66.58325 25300 2.632 JAX Jake Luton 14.53800 5400 Keelan Cole 9.005250 3400
Chris Conley 8.059000 3000
Tyler Eifert 5.905000 2700
75.12717 28900 2.600 WAS Alex Smith 15.55300 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.859170 6800
Logan Thomas 8.029000 3300
Cam Sims 3.580000 3200
83.59040 32400 2.580 CLE Baker Mayfield 17.18900 6000 Jarvis Landry 13.465250 5900
Austin Hooper 10.167151 3900
Rashard Higgins 8.391000 4600
95.15085 37000 2.572 TB Tom Brady 18.99770 6300 Chris Godwin 13.236500 6000
Mike Evans 12.897250 6300
Antonio Brown 12.024000 5800
75.86063 29500 SF Nick Mullens 14.85430 5300 Brandon Aiyuk 13.465500 5700
Kendrick Bourne 8.931750 4400
Jordan Reed 8.900482 3500
101.60036 40700 2.496 GB Aaron Rodgers 21.09590 7900 Davante Adams 21.751662 9000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 8.610500 4400
Robert Tonyan 7.950500 3600

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.